Newt Gingrich rose from among the ranks to fill the Herman Cain vacuum in recent weeks. It seemed like the timing couldn't have been better either, with the Iowa GOP Caucus date set for January 3rd. But in the past few days, the unstoppable Gingrich momentum in the state has faltered in the glare of the national media spotlight, leaving many to wonder if he didn't peak in Iowa just a few weeks to soon.
According to ABC News just a few days ago Iowa's self-proclaimed voice of family values and failed gubernatorial hopeful, Bob Vander Plaats' received the eagerly awaited response from Gingrich to his evangelical group's request for Newt to sign a 14-point marriage pledge. While Gingrich failed to sigh the document, he did "pledge to uphold the institution of marriage through personal fidelity to my spouse and respect for the marital bonds of others." Today, according to the Des Moines Register, an anonymous group referring to itself as Iowans for Christian Leaders in Government has released a scathing video on YouTube aimed at thwarting a Vander Plaats endorsement of Gingrich. The video uses Vander Plaats' own words of what he expects from a candidate and refutes them with actual news footage from Gingrich's past. In the end, it states that "The Family Leader (Vander Plaats' Group) Cannot Endorse...The Family Leaver," referring to Gingrich's multiple marriages and infidelities.
As the Iowa evangelical community is beginning to pull away from Gingrich, Public Policy Polling has released new data indicating, among other things, that Gingrich is in a statistical tie in Iowa with Ron Paul. Even worse for Gingrich is the favor/unfavorable portion of the poll tracking the 'likeability' factor; a key in determining the outcome of an Iowa caucus (remember Mike Huckabee). When asked if they had a favorable opinion of an individual candidate, Gingrich received just 52% of responses in the affirmative, compared with Paul's 61%. 40% of those polled also indicated that they had an "unfavorable" opinion of Gingrich, compared to 31% who had a similar opinion of Paul.
The bursting Gingrich bubble is not merely an Iowa phenomenon. According to the Washington Post, "Republicans on Capitol Hill are increasingly worried about the potential of a Newt Gingrich presidential nomination, fearful that the former House speaker's reputation for volatility could drive away independent voters and jeopardize GOP prospects for controlling Congress in 2013." The Post went on to state that one GOP strategist has described a Gingrich Presidential nomination as a "train wreck" while Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), refers to a lot of Gingrich's ideas as "Wacko".
With one man polarizing so many within the GOP against each other, it's hard for Democrats to muster a better case scenario for 2012 than a Gingrich nomination. Anyone who can put factions of the evangelical base in Iowa at odds with one another and instill fear into the hearts of his own party leadership must be considered a golden goose for Obama and Democrats. The question is can this goose remain airborne long enough to make it to the January 3rd Iowa Caucus, or will the weight of the Gingrich legacy bring him crashing back down to earth to simply lay another egg of failure in his own sordid wake.
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